Number Crunch Best worst Week 9 fantasy matchup

Number Crunch Best worst Week 9 fantasy matchup

The winning formula in is simple: Play the matchups.Yet, accurately determining the difficulty of a matchup and the true value of a player can be challenging if you use the same old dusty stats that every fantasy site has been using for the last decade. football is a game of numbers, so why not use the next generation of fantasy analytics to do the number crunching for you?That's why my weekly column 'Number Crunch' uses a proprietary system called "," which uses an algorithm to provide the actual strength of an opponent and actual player capabilities with accuracy levels that you cannot find anywhere else. This system takes all the emotion and gue swork out of winning in , and has proven to be up to than the metrics that everyone else in your league is using.Sound complicated? Don't worry -- it's simple to understand. All you need to know is that the player or matchup with the higher rating is the better option. Positive numbers mean positive matchups, negative numbers mean negative matchups. That's it. Let the system do all the number crunching. All you need to do is find a spot for that fantasy league trophy.Weekly Matchup RangesBelow are the EASIEST and TOUGHEST defensive matchups against each fantasy position. The higher the number, the better the matchup for players who are facing them.Want ALL the Defense Ratings? .LegendHere's an easy breakdown of how each player module works. When these terms are mentioned in the text (i.e. "best") they are corresponding to these ratings and colors:Expect More:Players who could exceed expectations this week based on their ability to outplay their matchups combined with the weakne s of their opponent.QBJay Culter consistently takes advantage of "good" rated matchups. Over his last four games, his algorithm player rating increased by 92 percent as he delivered solid fantasy production against every positive matchup he faced. Cutler gets his fifth-straight positive matchup on Monday night against San Diego. Over their last three games, the lead the league with seven pa sing touchdowns against and the third-highest pa ser rating (115.6) allowed. If you add Cutler to a list of the eight quarterbacks that have already faced the , his player rating would be the fifth-highest of the group and the player rated sixth () already scored 23 fantasy points against them in back Week 7.Forecast: Cutler will need to head back to your bench for the next two weeks as he faces two "worst" rated matchups in a row against the and . Recommended Usage: LOW QB1 DFS Bonus Start: vs. NYGRBOver the last two weeks, is playing over 50 percent of the offensive snaps while grabbing over 55 percent of the rush attempts. His player rating tripled since Week 4 after delivering his three best fantasy performances of the season. Two of those double digit fantasy days came against "good" rated matchups, while last week he had his best performance of the year against a "bad" rated Green Bay defense. This week Hillman should continue to see 15-20 touches in a "good" rated matchup against the . Over the last four weeks, only three other teams have given up more fantasy points to running backs than the . Opposing lead running backs are earning 1.01 Points Per Touch (FPPT) against Indianapolis, the most in the league over that span.Forecast: The backfield has faced all but one of its positive matchups this season. The next attractive matchup doesn't come until Week 13 when they face a "great" rated defense. Recommended Usage: RB2 moved back into a more consistent role in the offense over the last three weeks. Since Week 5, Hill has played over 50 percent of the offensive snaps and received over 60 percent of the rush attempts. Much of Hill's perceived slow start can be attributed to having the worst first half schedule of any fantasy running back. In 2014, Hill scored 10 more fantasy points against positive matchups than he did against negative ones. This week, he gets just his second positive matchup of the year against the defense. The give up a league-leading 147 rush yards per game along with the second most FPPT to opposing running backs Ceddanne Rafaela Jersey . One element mi sing from Hill's play this season is the long run. Last year over 25 percent of his fantasy points came from runs over 10 yards as opposed to only 11 percent this year. The are the remedy that Hill needs to fix that problem since they allow the league's second-most rushing plays of 10 yards or more. Forecast: Hill's best matchup of the season comes next week against the . His next positive matchup will be a rematch with the in Week 13. Recommended Usage: FLEX DFS Bonus Start: at DALWR is one of the most volume-dependent receivers in the NFL. Over his first two NFL seasons, Evans averages over 16 fantasy points a game when he sees more than 30 percent of the pa s targets and only eight fantasy points when he sees le s. Target volume should not be an i sue this week against a defense that gives up the second-most receptions in the NFL. This will be just Evans' third positive matchup of the season and he averaged 13 fantasy points a game in the first two.Forecast: Evans entered the sweet spot of his season back in Week 7 and produced his best fantasy performance of the year. After a "bad" rated matchup next week, Evans finishes the season with four positive matchups out of his final six games. Recommended Usage: WR2 played over 80 percent of the offensive snaps over the last two games, and will likely see his role increase after 's season-ending injury. Johnson previously had to play 10-12 snaps before seeing a touch, but as his targets increase moving forward (Allen had 25 percent of the team's targets), he should see a steady decrease in the amount of snaps he needs to play before he sees a target. The lead the NFL in yards after catch (YAC) with 206 per game, and Johnson had the third-highest YAC on the team. Johnson's increase in opportunities along with his YAC should serve as a perfect fit against a defense allows the third-most YAC to opposing wide receivers. Johnson has not scored a touchdown since Week 2, but his chances to score increase this week against a Chicago defense giving up the fourth-most touchdowns to receivers.Forecast: After he returns from his Week 10 bye, Johnson gets a pair of "great" rated matchups against the porous defense. Recommended Usage: FLEX DFS Bonus Start: Jr. vs. GBTE will be the beneficiary of the tight end matchup of the week. Miller has a "great" rated matchup against a defense that gives up a league-leading one touchdown per game to tight ends. The tend to lean on Miller when the matchup is right. He averages over four FPPT against positive matchups, but just 0.57 against negative ones. This leads to Miller averaging five more fantasy points per game against positive rated opponents like the than against negative ones. Forecast: This will be Miller's final "great" rated matchup of the season. He may not be worth holding on to after this week since he still faces two "worst" rated matchups and has not had his bye. Recommended Usage: LOW TE1 DFS Bonus Start: at CHID/STCIN vs. CLE: The defense put themselves back on the fantasy radar last week with their best fantasy performance since Week 2. This week they may have the highest upside of any defense. Cincinnati plays at home on Thursday night in a peach of a matchup against the . Cleveland leads the NFL in giveaways on the road with 2.5 per game. The give up 3.4 sacks a game and average 1.5 turnovers. But the biggest upside for the is their reunion with semi-profe sional football player, . The last time Manziel faced the , he endured a 30-0 lo s while throwing 18 completions for 80 yards with two interceptions.ATL at SF: If you are looking for a bye-week filler in Week 9, the can be trusted. Atlanta is playing on the road, but heads out to Santa Clara to face a offense with starting a game for the first time since 2013. The forfeit 3.5 sacks a game, including 12 over the last three games. The offense averages just 13 points and le s than 290 offensive yards a game, making them a prime opponent for fantasy defenses. Expect Le s:Players who could fall short of expectations this week based on the strength of their opponent.QB's player rating has been steadily dropping since his Week 5 bye due to his inability to take advantage of his easy schedule (, , ). Bridgewater gets his third "worst" rated matchup of the season this week as the host the . The allow the fewest pa sing touchdowns per game (0.7) and no receiver against them has scored since Week 5. Although Bridgewater performed surprisingly well against a similarly rated Denver defense back in Week 4, his ceiling in this matchup is still way too low to be considered a viable bye week option.Forecast: Bridgewater won't see another "great" rated matchup until Week 16, and you are likely not making it that far if you have him as your weekly starter. This week starts four consecutive negative matchups for Teddy. Recommended Usage: SIT RB is quietly becoming one of the most consistent fantasy running backs in the league with three straight double-digit fantasy performances over the last month. Yeldon's matchup dependency is likely one of the causes of his slow start. He faced three straight "bad" rated matchups in Weeks 1-3, averaging just six fantasy points per game against them. Since Week 3, Yeldon faced four consecutive "good" rated matchups averaging 13 fantasy points a game in those contests. This week Yeldon faces his only "worst" rated matchup of the season as the travel to face the . The give up a league-low 78 rushing yards per game, and only 56 yards per game over the last three games.Forecast: If you want to trade for a running back to help you in the fantasy playoffs, then wait until after this week and trade for Yeldon. Yeldon's six positive matchups out of his next seven games add up to one of the most attractive playoff schedules of any running back. Recommended Usage: FLEX is battling to keep his starting role on the this season, although his starting role on fantasy teams has disappeared. His player rating has dropped consistently every week since Week 1. Bye weeks often require desperate starts, but Jennings should not be considered a viable option this week. He faces a "bad" rated Tampa Bay defense that is giving up only 68 rushing yards per game over their last three games and only 76 rush yards per game at home all season.Forecast: Jennings' next four matchups are all negative, including a "worst" rated defense in Week 13 before facing three "good" rated matchups in a row during the fantasy playoffs. Recommended Usage: SIT WR is in the top 10 in terms of FPPT over his last two seasons, yet since landing in San Francisco he only sees 15 percent of the ' pa s targets and is one of the top five most matchup-dependent wide receivers in the league. He scores 11 more fantasy points against positive matchups than he does against negative ones. This week, Smith faces another negative matchup against a "bad" rated Atlanta defense allowing only three touchdowns to receivers all season. The hold opposing pa s catchers to just 0.71 FPPT, nearly half of Smith's average.Forecast: Smith comes back from his Week 10 bye with a negative matchup against Seattle. After the game, the receivers only have one more negative matchup in Week 14. Recommended Usage: SIT 's second game with two touchdowns and over 20 fantasy points came just last week against the . Austin is one of the most touchdown-dependent receivers in the league with over 55 percent of his fantasy points coming from scoring plays. Austin gets another "bad" rated matchup this week against a defense allowing just six total touchdowns to opposing receivers. Austin needs to pad his numbers with receiving yards this week in order to produce fantasy points, which could be a tough task against a defense allowing the seventh-fewest receiving yards in the NFL.Forecast: Austin owners should hang on through this "bad" rated matchup. Starting in Week 10, the receivers face six consecutive positive matchups through Week 15. Recommended Usage: FLEX TE had his best fantasy performance of the season after returning from injury in Week 7. Reed's three touchdowns this season account for 35 percent of his fantasy point production. This week, Reed gets a "bad" rated matchup against a defense that has allowed just two touchdowns to tight ends all season.Forecast: Two of Reed's next three matchups represent his only remaining positive matchups of the season. Recommended Usage: LOW TE1 D/STTB vs NYG: The fantasy defense had their way with the in Week 8. This week they face a offense that does not offer many opportunities to opposing fantasy defenses. The give away the ball the third-fewest times per game while allowing just 1.5 sacks a week. Eli is red hot after putting up video game numbers last week and is without an interception since Week 6. Look elsewhere for a fantasy start this week, but come back to the Bucs in Week 10 when they host a Ca sel-led .CAR vs. GB: The fantasy defense is a capable weekly start, but this week they face their most formidable opponent of the season as they host a offense giving away the second-fewest turnovers per game. Last week, Rodgers had his worst performance as a starter against the and Denver ended up producing below their season average in fantasy points. The are good for a couple sacks as Green Bay gives up two per game, but the lack of turnover opportunities and the potential for scoreboard points will cap the ' Week 9 fantasy potential. Week 10 Forecast:Do you have holes to fill in your roster? Don't wait until next week's waivers, grab these guys now and enjoy their tasty matchups before they are even on your opponents' radar:QB: at JAC, vs. MINRB: vs. DAL, vs. NOWR: vs. CHI, vs. NOTE: vs. CLE, vs. DALD/ST: PIT vs. CLE, TB vs. DAL-- Chris Anthony is a guest contributor to NFL.com, hailing from . You can follow him on Twitter . Be sure to check back each week for more analytics-based analysis as the algorithm will only get more accurate over time! Yu Chang Jersey

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